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Captain CarlCosmogasm
Cosmogasm
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Posted - 2012.07.24 20:59:00 -
[1] - Quote
Considering Fozie's new alchemy ratio and roughly speaking, if we replaced all the production demand on technetium with cobalt the demand on cobalt would increase between 50 to 100 times. |
Captain CarlCosmogasm
Cosmogasm
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Posted - 2012.07.25 07:24:00 -
[2] - Quote
if cobalt stays around 2.5k - 5k and supplies the new demand to allegedly be placed upon it, technetium will drop to between 20k - 30k; HACs will be around the 100 million mark.
Then again, maybe I'm an idiot. |
Captain CarlCosmogasm
Cosmogasm
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Posted - 2012.07.25 16:55:00 -
[3] - Quote
I do modestly follow the Jita moon goo market. Pre-technetium alchemy announcement, cobalt seemed to be over produced. The volume of cobalt traded seems to have been about 1/10th the volume that was needed to make the volume of crystalline carbonide traded. Also cobalt was relatively dirt cheep compared to the other racial metals. I assume from the numbers that players who harvest cobalt tend to operate full crystalline carbonide chains and that there is so much more cobalt produced than platinum used that it became as cheep as it was, 500 isk.
Also as others have pointed out in the proposed platinum technite alchemy, the competitive ratio between cobalt and technetium is 10:1.
What hasn't been mentioned, but is probably understood, is the large demand on fullerides and nanotransistors in T2 manufacturing and the large demand on crytalline carbonided from gallente and ore t2 manufacturing. If we hypothetically replace all the technetium used to produce the required amount of platinum technite to full fill market demand with cobalt, EVE would need to produce 50 to 100 times the amount of cobalt it now produces as I can see from my loose interpretation of the market numbers. Statistically if r8s are 4 times more common that r32s then cobalt can only compete or replace about 1/10th the demand on technetium - I don't know if this is correct.
Is there enough cobalt to effectively drive down the cost of technetium?
If there isn't enough cobalt to effectively replace technetium, or a good portion of it, in the fulleride and nanotransitor chains, then cobalt will spike to about 15k to match an 80k technetium price (last time I compared values).
For the T2 Gallente manufacturer, prepare for crystalline carbonide to settle around 250. |
Captain CarlCosmogasm
Cosmogasm
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Posted - 2012.07.26 14:31:00 -
[4] - Quote
tl;dr
Technetium will become 10x the cost of cobalt, whatever that becomes. |
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